Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market

The percentages that the Trump household will launch a full-fledged prediction market product this 12 months simply plummeted.

Final 12 months, the Trump Media and Technology Group introduced Truth Predict, a partnership with the cryptocurrency firm Crypto.com. The preliminary announcement touted Reality Predict as a “new product” that may enable Truth Social customers to make trades on sports activities, inflation, elections, and extra by way of an “embedded” prediction market service. “For too lengthy, international elites have carefully managed these markets—with Reality Predict, we’re democratizing info and empowering on a regular basis Individuals to harness the knowledge of the gang, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” then-CEO Devin Nunes mentioned within the October 2025 press release.

On the time, the corporate detailed how Reality Social customers would have the ability to convert the platform’s present “Reality gem” forex into Cronos cryptocurrency tokens, after which “apply” them to Reality Predict trades. Now, Trump Media is framing the undertaking otherwise. In its newest public submitting, the corporate indicated that the prediction market “stays in growth,” however that its providing can be initially restricted to a “advertising and promotion collaboration” with OG.com, the US-based prediction market platform that Crypto.com launched in February 2026.

What’s a “advertising and promotion collaboration,” precisely? Exhausting to say, as neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com responded to questions on what the settlement entails. “We’re inspired by the progress we’ve made growing Reality Predict in partnership with CDNA and stay up for bringing this thrilling characteristic to Reality Social’s customers,” Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine instructed WIRED through e-mail. (“CDNA” refers to Crypto.com’s affiliated US-regulated derivatives alternate and clearinghouse, which is known as Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. Actually rolls off the tongue.)

Prediction markets are a quick-growing and hotly contested business. Donald Trump, Jr. has ties to a number of main markets; he’s a paid advisor to Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket by way of his enterprise capital agency. President Donald Trump has made few public feedback about prediction markets, although this April he instructed reporters that he didn’t “prefer it conceptually” and that he was “not proud of any of that stuff.”

Nonetheless, the Trump administration has largely taken a pleasant stance in the direction of the business by way of its prime federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee. The Biden-era CFTC banned Polymarket and even raided its CEO Shayne Coplan’s house; the Trump-era CFTC dropped the investigation. The Trump-era CFTC additionally insists that it has unique jurisdiction over the business, and has opposed state efforts to intervene, filing its own lawsuits towards what CFTC chairman Michael Selig describes as “overzealous state regulators.” Selig is locked in a tense battle with state regulators over how the legislation ought to apply to those merchandise; states like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts are bringing corporations together with Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to courtroom, arguing that they should abide by state playing guidelines.

One of many distinguishing traits of OG.com is that it initially deliberate to permit individuals to commerce on margin, which implies that individuals would have the ability to borrow funds to position trades somewhat than placing up all of the financing themselves. Margin buying and selling is a longtime follow within the monetary derivatives world, however comparatively new to prediction markets; it inherently entails an added diploma of threat as a result of it permits merchants to make use of cash they don’t have. (It’s unclear if OG.com will roll this out. When WIRED reached out to the corporate to ask if margin buying and selling is dwell, it acquired an e-mail again from “the OG crew” stating “margin buying and selling just isn’t an supplied product.”)

The upshot is that sooner or later within the close to future, a Reality Social consumer could possibly toggle between studying Trump’s all-caps posts and borrowing massive sums of cash to construct a World Cup parlay—however relying on how the “advertising and promotion collaboration” is about up, they might not really be putting trades inside the social community.